On Stocks | Mellinckrodt

January 29, 2019
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Capital preservation is more important than participation in bear market rallies

1. Stock values are more attractive than last summer—but this by and in itself is not reason enough to invest We’ve been repeating this mantra for months, and it still holds true. Of course stocks are valued better than last summer. With lower prices and only slightly adjusted profit estimates one doesn’t need a calculator to understand this. However, in addition to the valuation based on oftentimes...

January 29, 2019
Georg Oehm
Fund Information

Positive performance at the year-end—outperformance through long-short strategy

1. What is important for fund investors – The for months defensive positioning of our fund had a significantly positive effect in December. While nearly all stock funds showed high negative returns for the past one to two months, capital preservation was the focus for Mellinckrodt. The hedging strategy worked as desired. As a result of Mellinckrodt’s good performance in December it achieved...

December 17, 2018
Georg Oehm
Fund Information

Short positions built in November come to fruition in December

1. What is important for fund investors After hedging the portfolio to a stock quota of 0% in October, the downward trend in the markets continued. This offered an opportunity to build up short positions. As of November 30, 70.06% of the fund was invested in stocks. In addition, we performed hedging transactions with stock and index futures equivalent to 96.10% of the fund assets. The sum of stocks...

December 10, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Collapsing Central Bank bouncy house—risks 2019—end of the political going concern—chronic unease part 3

Central bank bouncy house The relaxed monetary policy of the central banks of all big countries has inflated the prices of all asset values. We have already discussed extensively what that means in our first article of the “chronic unease” series. The side effects of the “Central Bank bouncy house” made the search for inexpensive investment objects—let alone the search for a steal—downright pointless....

November 19, 2018
Georg Oehm
Fund Information

Due to possible turbulences keep your seat belt fastened!

1. What is important for fund investors The portfolio continues to be hedged. The net stock quota was at 0% in late October. Capital preservation trumps and is more important than “buy the dip.” The stocks are hedged. But the capital is invested over various currencies. As of late October, 61% of the fund were invested in the Euro region. Currently, the quota of euro investments is only at...

November 1, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Chronic unease: Crash 1987 and today—are there really parallels?

Last night Ralph Acampora explained in an interview with MarketWatch that the current market situation reminds him of 1987. We’ll see whether or not Acampora is right. As I am writing these lines, some colleagues are already pointing out to me that he has been off so often. Sure. True. As investors with a private-equity approach, our decisions are not based on charts alone. But charts are an important...

October 24, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

“Mind the Gap”

It has been a bumpy year for the stock markets so far, and October has been serving the same thing it has brought in difficult situations in the past: price declines. Still missing are volatility and panic, but those may already have been delivered as we are typing these lines or when you read them. 1. IMF: “Only 9 out of 212 recessions were predicted accurately” You may not believe...

October 24, 2018
Georg Oehm
Fund Information

All is secured

What is important for fund investors The portfolio is mostly hedged. However, because we have hedged much through Eurex single stock futures, the hedging is much “closer” to the stocks we hold than it was in the past. This significantly reduced the risk of suffering loss on the hedging that is not compensated by price gains in stocks when the market recovers. Our primary goal as stock fund is currently...

September 13, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Shaky September

Shaky September is the summary of what stock exchange legend David Tepper just said in a long interview on CNBC on the occasion of the inauguration of the building complex at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh donated by him. David Tepper is an American hedge fund manager, multi-billionaire, and in 2012 and 2013 was the highest-earning hedge fund manager (Source: Reuters). His recommendation...

September 13, 2018
Georg Oehm
Fund Information

Direction still not determined in August

I. What is important for fund investors The development of the fund price in 2018 continues to disappoint, especially when compared to previous years. Since the last week of July, in which we intensely adjusted the portfolio, the fund has been developing better than the DAX. But still, the DAX and the fund price continue to fall. Based on our previous assessment—which we still stand by at this...