On Stocks

May 10, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Have you thought about what a “force majeure” could mean for a corporation like Siemens in light of the imminent U.S. sanctions against Iran?

Clauses in supply contracts that allow a supplier to withdraw from the contract when unexpected events (natural disasters, war, strike, sanctions) occur are called “force majeure,” meaning “superior force.” This is common especially in the commodity business. For example, BASF exercised its right of “force majeure” for a number of products after the fire in the port of Ludwigshafen in 2015, as it...

May 8, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Regulating Zuckerberg and friends like Rockefeller—is that even possible—and will the stock markets then fall?

The hoopla over Cambridge Analytica, the election campaign of The Donald, and its connection with Facebook’s use of private data was big. We almost got the impression that Hannibal Mark had climbed the sugar hills of the western Alps with his data elephants and was threatening the comfort zone of the Offline Occident. A call for regulations rang out immediately and loudly. However, in this context...

March 28, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Is Trump switching the stock exchange light to red or is there light at the end of the tunnel?

The volatility at the stock exchanges is rising. Even casual bystanders have probably realized by now that the stock exchange light is yellow. But what are the reasons for the greatly increasing insecurity of the investors? With the world economy in a synchronous growth phase, it is difficult to see why it has come to price declines at this time. Four aspects will catch your eye when you track the...

February 28, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

What do you do when the stock exchange light turns yellow?

The election is coming up shortly in Italy, and the markets show little concern before the event. Very different from the sentiment with respect to Brexit or the presidential election in the USA or France. The more surprising is it that Ray Dalio, the fund manager of the biggest hedge fund worldwide, has come into the spotlight of the media with his huge short positions in European stocks. The economy...

February 8, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Dear Robert Halver, we don‘t believe in the almightiness of the central banks. Therefore, smart preparation is in order for boom, bang, pow.

Stock market expert Robert Halver expects that the central banks will prevent the financial bubbles from bursting. We are not so sure about this. The volatility guys from the computer kitchen showed the markets last week how it can go when what is not supposed to be does happen. Flash-crash-wise it went by quickly, but the volatile crypto crash may not be over yet. Risks I. The price of oil and...

A look into the engine room of the Mellinckrodt fund shows the systematics of its success

I. Engine room The engine room of a ship is significant as speed and overhead are particularly important for its value. Taking a look into the engine room will give you an impression and facilitate the answers to questions about the aspects of speed and overhead. For what types of drive are engines available? Are you still sailing or are you traveling with a galley propelled by muscle power? You...

December 13, 2017
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Grab the Chinese dragon by its horns!

The dragon is awakening: Why China is important for stock investors

Why China is important for stock investors. Everyone is talking about Bitcoin—you’re better off keeping your eyes on oil. This is not about your kids learning Chinese or about you buying Alibaba stocks. This may or may not make sense. Twenty-five years ago, China was, from an economic standpoint, as big as Turkey. Since then, the Chinese have been knocking on the door of the U.S. and are...

November 6, 2017
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Gasoline in the blood or vibrato at the power outlet: Daimler versus Tesla

I. Macro Hypothesis The economic cycle is far advanced. Due to the concurrently positive economic development worldwide we assume that European consumers will have more money in their pockets this year and next year. The favorite child of the Germans, the automobile, should benefit from this. When business goes well, companies treat their employees to extra benefits. Individuals, too, concern themselves...

October 17, 2017
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

What does Zurich’s Bahnhofstrasse have to do with your liquidity?

I. Bahnhofstraße Among the world’s shopping streets, Bahnhofstraße in Zurich, Switzerland, stands out with the highest rents for shops in Europe. CHF 15,000 (approx. €13,000 or $15,000) per square meter (approx. 10.8 square feet) annually are normal. It is clear what stores you’ll find there if rent for retail space of 100 square meters (just over 1,000 square feet) comes out to CHF 1.5 million...

September 7, 2017
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Korea, China, Interest, Exit

The speed is increasing. Asia, long since a pivot and focal point, continues to gain political and economic significance. There are not only bad news–like those from Korea–but also good news from China. Korea Kim Jong-un, as I have learned this week, apparently has lived in Switzerland for 11 years. He speaks Berner Dütsch [a form of Swiss German spoken in the city of Bern], can sing songs from...

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