On Stocks

January 3, 2020
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Dear Mr. Littger, we aren’t disparaging the English as freebooters but rather see the Phoenix potential in 2020

Even as London’s mayor Boris wasn’t getting around by boat. | Shutterstock #430581442 In his column “The freebooters from the island | What the Brits’ new course looks like”on n-tv on December 30, 2019, Peter Littger holds the opinion that “Johnson’s strategy of a global British freebooting consciously aims at deception, nontransparency, strife—inward as well as outward […] Boris Johnson...

September 25, 2019
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Stock market and political expert Larry McDonald on the current situation

A Colossal Failure of Common Sense – Buch von Patrick Robinson

Passive investment vehicles continue to change the stock markets. But that doesn’t mean that decisions no longer have to be made—on the opposite. As soon as you decide to invest the part of the money that you want to invest in stocks not only in ETFs on the MCSI world index, investment-relevant questions arise: how many stocks from which country, which industries or sectors and—particularly important—what...

January 29, 2019
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Capital preservation is more important than participation in bear market rallies

1. Stock values are more attractive than last summer—but this by and in itself is not reason enough to invest We’ve been repeating this mantra for months, and it still holds true. Of course stocks are valued better than last summer. With lower prices and only slightly adjusted profit estimates one doesn’t need a calculator to understand this. However, in addition to the valuation based on oftentimes...

December 10, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Collapsing Central Bank bouncy house—risks 2019—end of the political going concern—chronic unease part 3

Central bank bouncy house The relaxed monetary policy of the central banks of all big countries has inflated the prices of all asset values. We have already discussed extensively what that means in our first article of the “chronic unease” series. The side effects of the “Central Bank bouncy house” made the search for inexpensive investment objects—let alone the search for a steal—downright pointless....

November 1, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Chronic unease: Crash 1987 and today—are there really parallels?

Last night Ralph Acampora explained in an interview with MarketWatch that the current market situation reminds him of 1987. We’ll see whether or not Acampora is right. As I am writing these lines, some colleagues are already pointing out to me that he has been off so often. Sure. True. As investors with a private-equity approach, our decisions are not based on charts alone. But charts are an important...

October 24, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

“Mind the Gap”

It has been a bumpy year for the stock markets so far, and October has been serving the same thing it has brought in difficult situations in the past: price declines. Still missing are volatility and panic, but those may already have been delivered as we are typing these lines or when you read them. 1. IMF: “Only 9 out of 212 recessions were predicted accurately” You may not believe...

September 13, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Shaky September

Shaky September is the summary of what stock exchange legend David Tepper just said in a long interview on CNBC on the occasion of the inauguration of the building complex at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh donated by him. David Tepper is an American hedge fund manager, multi-billionaire, and in 2012 and 2013 was the highest-earning hedge fund manager (Source: Reuters). His recommendation...

August 17, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Yes, even if you don‘t believe it—our risk indicator is showing a GREEN light

In risk management we use different systems providing indicators so that we can get an idea of the markets that goes beyond a superficial analysis of the situation. Of course there‘s no master indicator. The situation as far as information goes is like that in the cockpit of an airplane with numerous instruments. Some are used more regularly, others less. But in the end—just like in an airplane—it...

July 29, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Vampire and greed—stock market in the clutches of the FANG stocks—but now it is the fundamentals that count!

I. FANG The English term for vampire teeth is also the acronym of the U.S. stocks that were most popular in the first half of 2018 F(acebook)A(mazon)N(etflix)G(oogle). Source: shutterstock, leo.org The price development in the first half year was phenomenal. A rise in prices of over 50% in six months—that doesn’t happen every day. FANG stocks making for more than 95% of the total price gain of...

June 14, 2018
Georg Oehm
On Stocks

Chronic MACRO unease—and its benefits for risk management

Chronic unease isn’t a pleasant thing to deal with. But it’s important for the management of risk. You may wonder what this topic has to do with the burning oil rig. The connection is simple: British researchers have analyzed which oil rig managers have the fewest accidents. Complacent chief strategists aren’t very successful. Managers with “chronic unease” whose nature it is to suspect a risk behind...

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