On Global Macro

June 10, 2022
Georg Oehm
On Global Macro

On Druckenmiller’s view

His current macro view was the subject of an interview at the Sohn Conference and an article on TheMarket by Mark Dittli. «Betting on a soft landing is a very very long shot» A key statement by Druckenmiller can be summarized as follows:Remember, normally a rate hike cycle does not end until the fed funds rate is above the inflation rate. That happens either because the inflation rate falls...

July 23, 2020
Georg Oehm
On Global Macro

Corona empties Venice | status analysis after quick check on site

The coronavirus crisis has impacted many areas of life but only few as dramatically as the global travel and tourism industry. What used to be top destinations of city tourism have been especially hard hit. The cities in Europe most overrun by tourists before corona according to Forbes Magazine were Venice, Dubrovnik, Barcelona, and Prague. With only 50,000 residents and 25 million visitors...

April 23, 2020
Georg Oehm
On Global Macro

Outlook with a mask

The current macro situation is characterized by much uncertainty about the future development. Too many of the events have no historic examples. Outlook The past hasn’t seen a global shutdown. We simply have no experience with how the reopening will work, which challenges it’ll bring, and how all this will impact the economy in the medium and long term. The same is true for the counter...

March 14, 2020
Georg Oehm
On Global Macro

Bazooka à la Scholz—how does this actually work?

During my banking apprenticeship at Dresdner Bank I learned that there are different departments in the stock exchange business, all responsible for distinctly different aspects. Starting at breakfast, it was instilled into the young analysts that thinking long-term was key. The traders, they said, aren’t capable of it—three hours are long-term for them. At the farewell party of two administrative...

March 13, 2020
Georg Oehm
On Global Macro

Bergamo—call to “corona fasting”/assessment of the situation

Medizinischer Dienst am Flughafen Bergamo-Milano

I’m not talking about panic. Relax. This has never been as important as it is TODAY. Remaining calm is the first civil duty. Continue—but with open eyes! Panic buying is nonsense in my opinion. If something will remain open, it’s the grocery stores and pharmacies. With what we’re currently experiencing, three questions arise: 1. What do we need to do today? Bergamo is an indicator....

December 6, 2019
Larry McDonald
On Global Macro

Leveraged loans and the new shadow banks

NOVEMBER 30, 2019NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR LAWRENCE MCDONALD Breaking: *N.Y. FED’S 42-DAY REPO OP. OVERSUBSCRIBED; $42.55B OF BIDS – Bloomberg, December 2, 2019 $42B?! Q: Who’s the Fed financing here? Leveraged loans??? Global hedge funds??? A: Fed financing lev loans: Why wouldn’t they? Easier to soak the ground now than be trying to put out the fire later (credit fund). Looking...