On Global Macro

His current macro view was the subject of an interview at the Sohn Conference and an article on TheMarket by Mark Dittli. «Betting on a soft landing is a very very long shot» A key statement by Druckenmiller can be summarized as follows:Remember, normally a rate hike cycle does not end until the fed funds rate is above the inflation rate. That happens either because the inflation rate falls...

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Corona leert Venedig
The coronavirus crisis has impacted many areas of life but only few as dramatically as the global travel and tourism industry. What used to be top destinations of city tourism have been especially hard hit. The cities in Europe most overrun by tourists before corona according to Forbes Magazine were Venice, Dubrovnik, Barcelona, and Prague. With only 50,000 residents and 25 million visitors...

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The current macro situation is characterized by much uncertainty about the future development. Too many of the events have no historic examples. Outlook The past hasn’t seen a global shutdown. We simply have no experience with how the reopening will work, which challenges it’ll bring, and how all this will impact the economy in the medium and long term.  The same is true for the counter...

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During my banking apprenticeship at Dresdner Bank I learned that there are different departments in the stock exchange business, all responsible for distinctly different aspects. Starting at breakfast, it was instilled into the young analysts that thinking long-term was key. The traders, they said, aren’t capable of it—three hours are long-term for them. At the farewell party of two administrative...

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Medizinischer Dienst am Flughafen Bergamo-Milano
I’m not talking about panic. Relax. This has never been as important as it is TODAY. Remaining calm is the first civil duty. Continue—but with open eyes! Panic buying is nonsense in my opinion. If something will remain open, it’s the grocery stores and pharmacies. With what we’re currently experiencing, three questions arise: 1. What do we need to do today? Bergamo is an indicator....

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Crow's nest
NOVEMBER 30, 2019NY TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR LAWRENCE MCDONALD Breaking: *N.Y. FED’S 42-DAY REPO OP. OVERSUBSCRIBED; $42.55B OF BIDS – Bloomberg, December 2, 2019 $42B?! Q: Who’s the Fed financing here? Leveraged loans??? Global hedge funds??? A: Fed financing lev loans: Why wouldn’t they? Easier to soak the ground now than be trying to put out the fire later (credit fund). Looking...

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